技术进步路径与中国粮食安全——基于GTAP模型的分析
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国家自然科学基金项目“偏向型技术进步与农业要素收入分配:基于理论和实证的分析”(71503092);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2662020JGPY009)


Path of Technological Change and Food Security in China——Simulation Based on GTAP Model
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    摘要:

    选取产量与人均营养元素供给为粮食安全指标,采用GTAP模型探讨了技术进步路径选择对中国粮食安全的影响。研究结果表明,技术进步路径选择对保障中国粮食安全具有至关重要的作用。从农产品产量来看,所有类型的技术进步冲击均有利于农产品产量的提高,且土地及非熟练劳动力增进型技术进步的作用较为显著;进一步细分非熟练劳动力发现,农业及其他非熟练劳动力增进型技术进步对农产品的增产作用最为显著。从人均营养元素供给的变化来看,土地和非熟练劳动力增进型技术进步对人均营养元素供给的影响最为显著,而水资源增进型技术进步的影响则不明显;在细分非熟练劳动力的情景下,三类非熟练劳动力增进型技术进步中,农业及其他非熟练劳动力增进型技术进步对人均营养元素供给的影响最显著。提出为有效保障中国的粮食安全,农业技术变革应偏向于提升土地及非熟练劳动力的生产效率。

    Abstract:

    Based on GTAP model,the impact of directed technological change on China’s food security is examined with grain output and nutrient supply per capita as food security indicators. The result shows that the direction of agricultural technological change is crucial to ensuring food security. In terms of agricultural production,all directed technological changes are favorable to the increase of agricultural outputs,among which the effect of land-augmenting and unskilled labor-augmenting technological change is the most significant. Further classification of unskilled labor shows that farming and other unskilled labor-augmenting technological change has the most significant effect on increasing agricultural output. In terms of changes in nutrient supply per capita,the impact of directed technological change in agricultural sectors on nutritional supply is different. The land-augmenting and unskilled labor-augmenting technological change has the most significant impact on the per capita nutrition supply,while the impact of water-augmenting technological progress on per capita nutrient supply is insignificant. In the scenario of subdividing unskilled labor,among the three types of unskilled labor-augmenting technological change,the farming and other unskilled labor-augmenting technological change has the most significant impact on the per capita nutrition supply. Therefore,to ensure food security in China,technological change in agriculture should be directed towards improving the productivity of land and unskilled labor.

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雷泽奎,涂涛涛*,李 霞.技术进步路径与中国粮食安全——基于GTAP模型的分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2021(2):90-100

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-03-15
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