耕地转变为建设用地的碳排放效应——基于中国224个地级市的经验与证据
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1.河北经贸大学公共管理学院;2.管理世界杂志社;3.中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院

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X22

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河北省社会科学基金(HB23GL033)


The effects of land use change on carbon emission——Evidence from 224 cities of China
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    摘要:

    在碳达峰、碳中和的时代背景下,探究土地利用变化对碳排放的影响以及影响路径,对于推动生态环境协同治理、实现绿色高质量发展具有重要意义。本文从耕地转变为建设用地这一视角切入,基于2009-2010年、2018-2019年中国224个地级市的数据,运用面板固定效应模型着重探究耕地转变为建设用地的碳排放效应及其影响机制。研究发现:(1)全国耕地转变为建设用地呈现收缩趋势,东部省份以及东北地区趋势最为突出,中西部省份收缩趋势不明显。碳排放总量仅东部省份呈现下降趋势,其他省份均呈上升趋势。(2)耕地转变为建设用地显著增加了碳排放量,这一研究结果在进行稳健性检验以及处理可能存在的内生性后依然成立。(3)耕地变为建设用地所引致的产业结构以及能源消费变化是影响碳排放的主要路径。

    Abstract:

    In the era of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, it is of great significance to explore the impact of land use change on carbon emissions and its impact path for promoting coordinated ecological and environmental governance and achieving green and high-quality development. Starting from the perspective of the conversion of cultivated land into construction land, based on the data of 224 prefecture-level cities in China in 2009-2010 and 2018-2019, this paper uses the panel fixed effect model to focus on the carbon emission effect of the conversion of cultivated land into construction land and its influencing mechanism. The results showed that: (1) the conversion of cultivated land into construction land showed a shrinking trend, and the eastern provinces and northeast regions had the most prominent trend, while the central and western provinces had no obvious shrinking trend. The total carbon emission showed a downward trend only in the eastern provinces, while the other provinces showed an upward trend. (2) The conversion of cultivated land to construction land significantly increased carbon emissions, and this research result remained valid after robustness test and possible endogeneity treatment. (3) The change of industrial structure and energy consumption caused by the conversion of cultivated land into construction land is the main path affecting carbon emissions.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-14
  • 最后修改日期:2024-07-08
  • 录用日期:2024-08-28
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