Abstract:Based on the monthly data of potato price from January 2004 to December 2016,this paper constructs a TVP-SV-VAR model to study the impact of monetary liquidity,value of agricultural futures trading,international energy price,exchange rate changes and international hot money on potato price.The result shows that five financial factors have different effects on the price of potato,and the trend of potato financialization is gradually obvious.Both monetary liquidity and international hot money have relatively big positive impact on potato price in the short term,while the value of agricultural futures trading and international energy price have relatively big negative impact on potato price,but exchange rate changes have relatively small negative impact on potato price in the short term.The impact of international hot money and exchange rate changes on potato prices have significant structural breaks.In the three cycles of potato price fluctuations,monetary liquidity,exchange rate changes and international hot money have stablizing influence on potato prices.However,the influences from agricultural futures trading value and international energy price on potato price are gradually showing strengthening trend.