中国农业化肥投入效率空间差异及动态变迁
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国家自然科学基金项目“合作社农产品质量治理:基于成员层面的理论与实证研究”(71773044);江苏省“六大人才高峰”项目“二次孵化视角下战略性新兴产业与农业耦合协调发展研究”(JY-027)。


Spatial Difference and Dynamic Change of Agricultural Fertilizer Input Efficiency in China
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    摘要:

    在构建化肥消费需求模型的基础上,使用三种随机前沿分析模型对1998-2017年中国农业化肥投入效率进行了测算,并运用面板数据状态转换分析法对化肥投入效率的动态变迁趋势进行了预测。研究发现:中国农业化肥投入效率平均约为0.65,存在较大的提升潜力,且效率均值呈现中部高于东部、东部高于西部的非均衡分布格局;在化肥投入效率损失的构成上,短期效率损失较低,持久效率损失较高,表明持久效率损失是中国农业化肥投入效率总体偏低的主要根源;从化肥投入效率的变化趋势及效率状态的转换概率来看,中国农业化肥投入效率并没有呈现改善的迹象,效率损失具有非常强的黏性特征。因此,提升中国农业化肥投入效率的制度设计应该从长远着手,切实采取针对性措施降低持久性的化肥投入效率损失。

    Abstract:

    Based on the construction of fertilizer consumption demand model,this paper uses three stochastic frontier analysis models to calculate the input efficiency of agricultural chemical fertilizer in China from 1998 to 2017,and forecasts the dynamic change trend of fertilizer input efficiency by using the panel data multi-state model.It is found that the average fertilizer input efficiency in China was 0.65,which shows great potential for improvement.Moreover,the efficiency was higher in the central part than in the eastern part and higher in the eastern part than in the western part,which shows unbalanced distribution.There is no necessary relation between fertilizer input efficiency and fertilizer intensity.In terms of the composition of fertilizer input efficiency loss,the short-term efficiency loss is relatively low and the long-term efficiency loss is relatively high,which is the main cause of the overall low input efficiency of agricultural fertilizer in China.The irrational phenomenon of fertilizer input in agricultural production in China causes a lot of efficiency loss and input waste.The efficiency of fertilizer input shows no improvement in terms of the time trend of efficiency change and the conversion probability of efficiency state,and the efficiency loss is characterized by strong viscosity.Therefore,to improve the input efficiency of agricultural chemical fertilizer in China,the system design should focus on the long term,such as implementing the input efficiency control of chemical fertilizer,promoting the product quality upgrade of chemical fertilizer industry,and changing the traditional fertilization of farmers.

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蔡 荣,陶素敏.中国农业化肥投入效率空间差异及动态变迁[J].华中农业大学学报(社科),2020,(06):57-66

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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-11-11
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