产业集聚对中国农业净碳效应的影响研究
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国家自然科学基金青年项目“巴黎协定下中国农业碳排放权省域分配及协同减排策略研究”( 71903197);中南财经政法大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“碳排放权分配视域下的中国农业碳减排补偿机制与支持政策研究”(2722020JCT020)与“产业集聚对农业净碳效应影响研究”( 202111075)。


Research on the Impact of Industrial Agglomeration on China’s Agricultural Net Carbon Effect
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    摘要:

    利用空间计量方法分析我国产业集聚对农业净碳效应的影响及其空间溢出效应,结果表明:2018年我国各省区农业净碳效应存在明显差异且两极分化严重;与2000年相比,各地农业净碳效应已出现均衡化趋势,整体梯度差异逐渐趋于收敛,高值省份数量增加且变化较大,低值省域数量减少且变化不大。产业集聚与农业净碳效应均存在空间自相关性,二者之间呈现“正N”型关系,即随着农业产业集聚程度的不断提升,农业净碳效应表现出“先增、后减、再增”的三阶段变化特征;从实际影响来看,区域内产业集聚度每提升1个百分点可促使农业净碳效应量增加1.621%;除此之外,农业公共投资、农业产业结构、区域经济发展水平等变量也表现出了一定的正向效应但作用力度要明显偏弱。产业集聚对农业净碳效应具有显著的溢出效应,并表现为区域间溢出和区域内溢出。具体而言,邻近地区产业集聚度每提升1%可促使本地农业净碳效应增加2.286%,而本地产业集聚对邻近地区产生影响后因受反馈作用自身农业净碳效应还会额外增加0.060%。

    Abstract:

    This article first scientifically measures the current status of the agricultural net carbon effects in various regions and uses the nuclear density estimation method to explore its dynamic evolution characteristics.Then,spatial measurement methods are used to analyze the impact of industrial agglomeration on the agricultural net carbon effects,and its spatial spillover effect is discussed.The research results show that:1)In 2018,there were significant differences and even serious polarization in the net carbon effect of agriculture in various provinces in China.Compared with 2000,the net carbon effect of agriculture in various regions has been balanced,and the overall gradient difference has gradually tended to converge.The number of high-value provinces has increased greatly,and the number of low-value provinces has slightly decreased.2)There is a spatial autocorrelation between industrial agglomeration and the net carbon effect of agriculture,and there is a “positive N” relationship between the two,that is,as the degree of agglomeration of agricultural industries continues to increase,the net carbon effect of agriculture generally shows a characteristic of three stage change of “first increase,then decrease,then increase”.Specifically,with every 1 percentage point increase in industrial agglomeration in a region there was an increase in the amount of agricultural net carbon effect by 1.621%; in addition,variables such as agricultural public investment,agricultural industrial structure,the level of regional economic development and so on also showed a certain positive effect,though it was obviously weak.3)The agglomeration of agricultural industry has a significant spillover effect on the net carbon effect of agriculture,which is manifested as inter-regional spillover and intra-regional spillover.Specifically,with every 1 percentage point increase in industrial agglomeration there was an increase the agricultural net carbon effect of neighboring areas by 2.286%.The net carbon effect of local agriculture will increase by 0.060% due to feedback.Finally,based on the research conclusions,countermeasures are proposed.

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田 云,尹忞昊.产业集聚对中国农业净碳效应的影响研究[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2021(3):107-117

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-05-11
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