农业生产波动视角下农业信贷、保险对农业经济的协同效果研究
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武汉大学 经济与管理学院/金融工程与风险管理研究中心,湖北 武汉430072

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F327

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国家社会科学基金项目“经济持续下行引致系统性金融风险的机制与宏观审慎政策研究”(20BJY235)。


Research on the Synergetic Effect of Agricultural Credit and Insurance on Agricultural Economy from the Perspective of Agricultural Production Fluctuation
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    摘要:

    当前我国农业由高速增长向高质量发展转变,农业发展呈现出区域不平衡性,农业风险上升,合适的农业信贷和保险规模与结构能有效提升金融服务农业经济的效能。基于理论分析将农业信贷和风险管理因素引入生产函数中,利用2006-2020年31个省份的面板数据进行实证检验,研究不同农业生产区间下农业信贷、保险与农业经济的关系。研究表明:我国农业周期存在明显的经济区制转变,可将其划分为正常波动区间和持续下行区间;农业信贷和保险均能有效推动农业经济发展,但在不同农业生产区间下二者带来的影响存在差异。鉴于目前农业经济已进入持续下行区间,提出应加快由“农业信贷”单轮驱动的农村金融模式转变为“农业信贷+保险”双轮驱动模式;当农业信贷、保险处于合适的阈值区间时,才能有效发挥二者的协同效果。

    Abstract:

    At present,agriculture in China is changing from high-growth regime to high-quality development regime. The agricultural development shows regional imbalance and the agricultural risks are increasing. Appropriate scale and structure of agricultural credit and insurance can effectively enhance the effectiveness of financial services in agricultural economy.Based on theoretical analysis,this paper introduces agricultural credit and risk management into the production function.The relationship between agricultural credit,insurance and agricultural economy under different agricultural production regimes is examined empirically by using panel data from 31 provinces over the period from 2006 to 2020.The conclusions show that there is a clear regime transition in the agricultural cycle of China,which can be divided into a normal fluctuation regime and a continuous downward regime.Furthermore,both agricultural credit and insurance can effectively promote agricultural economic growth,but the impact of both varies across agricultural production regimes. Since the agricultural economy has entered a continuous downward regime,it is proposed to accelerate the change from a single-wheel-driven rural financial model based on credit to a two-wheel-driven model based on credit and insurance.When agricultural credit and insurance are in the appropriate threshold interval,the synergistic effect can be effectively brought into play.

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宋凌峰,马莹,肖雅慧.农业生产波动视角下农业信贷、保险对农业经济的协同效果研究[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2023(2):34-45

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  • 收稿日期:2022-11-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-03-10
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