Improving the resilience of food production is of great significance to ensure food security and accelerate the construction of an agricultural power. Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2005 to 2021， the evaluation index system of grain production resilience was constructed to measure the resilience level. And on this basis， the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution of the grain production was analyzed in depth followed by the trend prediction. The results are as follows： First， the overall level of food production resilience in China showed a year-on-year improvement trend during the study period， although the growth rate has slowed down in recent years. Second， there are obvious differences in the resilience of grain production among provinces， generally displaying a pattern of “being high in the east and low in the west” and the overall gap gradually widens during the study period. The main source of overall differences lies in regional disparities， but since 2017， interregional differences have gradually decreased， with intra-regional differences becoming the main cause of overall disparities. The problem of unbalanced development between sub-regions is more severe with obvious differences between provinces within the region. Third， there is a significant spatial correlation in the resilience of grain production in China， showing obvious characteristics of high-high and low-low agglomeration， where high-level provinces are mostly adjacent to one or more high-level provinces， while low-level provinces are mostly neighboring low-level provinces. Fourth， it is difficult for provinces to achieve a hierarchical leap in the resilience of food production in the short term. However， after the introduction of spatial and geographical factors， the stable state of grain production resilience has a tendency to fluctuate， often exhibiting a Matthew effect where “the strong remain strong and the weak remain weak”.