Abstract:Land transfer is a major agricultural reform to address rural land problem and achieve modernization of agriculture in China. Under the carbon emission pattern of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”,land transfer policy is regarded as an important measure to promote the low-carbon and green development of agriculture.Existing studies have pointed out that land transfer has the potential to enhance the green benefits of agriculture,but they have not delved into the impact of land transfer policy implementation on agricultural carbon emissions.Based on provincial panel data from 2007 to 2020 in China,this paper empirically analyses the impact mechanism and mediation path of land transfer policy implementation on agricultural carbon emissions through constructing a quasi-natural experiment.The study shows that estimation results based on the continuous DID model indicate that the land transfer policy has a certain inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emissions.The analysis of the impact mechanism reveals that agricultural scale management assumes part of the intermediary role in the process of policy implementation,effectively achieving the goal of agricultural emission reduction.The analysis of regional heterogeneity demonstrates differences in the results of land transfer policies implementation among different regions,with noticeable carbon reduction effects in the Northeast,Central,and Western regions,while the Eastern region lacks significant emission reduction effects.For this reason,we should continue to support and promote land transfer,further promote large-scale agricultural management, and adopt localized transfer policies to meet the diverse needs of different regions.