生育政策调整对农村女性劳动力非稳定就业的影响研究
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西安交通大学 公共政策与管理学院,陕西 西安 710049

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C923

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研究阐释党的十九届六中全会精神国家社会科学基金重大项目“推进以人为核心的新型城镇化关键问题研究——中西部农业转移人口的家庭功能与发展”(22ZDA057)。*为通讯作者。


A Study on the Impact of the Adjustment of Fertility Policy on the Precarious Employment of Rural Female Labor Force
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    摘要:

    如何在释放人口生育潜力的同时保障农村女性劳动力充分就业是我国社会发展面临的重大现实问题。选取中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014、2016、2018与2020年四期数据,采用双重差分模型实证检验生育政策调整对农村女性劳动力非稳定就业的影响。研究结果表明,生育政策的调整增加了农村女性劳动力的非稳定就业,在女性群体中间具有年龄异质性;在农村男性与农村女性之间具有区域异质性。生育政策调整不仅影响农村育龄女性的非稳定就业,还对非政策目标群体的农村女性劳动力就业空间产生挤压。促进人口结构均衡发展与农村女性高质量就业,需要同时关注生育政策目标群体与非目标群体的就业保障以及长期生育政策导致的环境差异,才能发挥政策工具效果以应对人口转型与经济发展的时代需求。

    Abstract:

    How to unleash the fertility potential of the population while ensuring the full employment of rural female labor force is a major practical problem facing China’s social development.Utilizing data from the China Family Panel Survey (CFPS) conducted in 2014、 2016、 2018 and 2020,this study empirically examines the impact of the implementation of the comprehensive childbirth policy on the precarious employment of rural female labor force through a difference-in-differences (DID) model.The research results indicate that the adjustment of the birth policy has increased the unstable employment among the rural female labor force,with age heterogeneity within the female population and regional heterogeneity between rural males and rural females.Despite its positive effect on the unstable employment of rural women of childbearing age,the adjustment of the fertility policy encroaches on employment opportunities for other rural female labor force groups not targeted by the policy.To promote the balanced development of population structure and high-quality employment for rural women,it is necessary to pay attention to the employment security of both policy target and non-target groups,as well as the environmental differences caused by long-term fertility policies.This approach can maximize the effectiveness of policy tools to meet the demands of population transformation and economic development.

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杨烁晨,杜海峰,靳小怡.生育政策调整对农村女性劳动力非稳定就业的影响研究[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2025(1):194-205

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  • 收稿日期:2024-06-07
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-01-16
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