基于供应链风险管理分析框架的中央储备粮布局优化研究
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中国农业科学院 农业经济与发展研究所,北京 100081

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F326.11

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国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展格局下我国粮食安全风险防范研究”(23&ZD118);国家自然科学基金面上项目“粮 食安全政治责任下地方政府抓粮的策略性行为研究:识别、影响与对策”(72373146);中国农业科学院科技创新工程基础 科学研究中心科学任务“粮食主产区利益补偿生成机理与机制构建”(CAAS-BRC-AERD-2025-01)。


Optimizing the Layout of Central Grain Reserves: An Analysis Based on a Supply Chain Risk Management Framework
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    摘要:

    “储在哪”是粮食储备的关键,中央储备粮是粮食储备安全的命脉,其布局合理性决定了应急保障能力和粮食安全水平。基于供应链风险管理构建分析框架,从影响储备效率的生产、消费、运输3个环节出发,分析中央储备粮产区分布、对接消费、衔接运力的特征,借鉴线性规划思路,计算得到储备与产、消、运达成平衡状态的储备库数量区间,提出现行中央储备粮储备库布局优化思路。目前有890个中央储备粮储备库,77%分布在主产区。其中,有4个非主产区的储备库数量低于区间下限,4个主产区高于区间上限。中央储备粮储备库布局存在重产区、轻销区的倾向,导致经营成本高、轮出渠道不畅,重口粮、轻玉米,削弱了饲料粮保障能力,重储备、轻流通,粮食调运受限。提出静态的粮食储备库布局应根据粮食需求动态变化及时调整,要平衡主产区和非主产区的储备库布局,根据市场需求优化储备粮品种结构,增强粮食储运基础设施投入并提高粮食调运效率。

    Abstract:

    “Where to store” is a crucial component of “how to store”. Central grain reserves constitute the backbone of China’s grain reserve security,and the rational spatial allocation determines the capacity for emergency response and the overall level of food security.Based on a supply chain risk management,this study constructs an analytical framework focusing on three key stages affecting reserve efficiency—production,consumption,and transportation.It examines the distribution of central grain reserves across producing regions, their alignment with consumption demand,and their connection with transportation.Drawing on the principles of linear programming,the study calculates the optimal range of reserve depots at which grain reserves reach a balanced state with production,consumption,and transportation. Based on these findings,optimization strategies for the current layout of central grain reserve depots are proposed. At present, there are 890 central grain reserve depots,77% of which are located in major grain-producing regions. Among them, the number of depots in four non-major grain-producing regions falls below the lower bound of the estimated optimal range,while that in four major grain-producing regions exceeds the upper bound. The current layout shows a bias toward producing regions and away from consuming regions,resulting in high operating costs and inefficient rotation channels. Additionally,the focus on rations over corn has weakened the ability to ensure the safety of feed grain supplies. Similarly,an emphasis on reserve rather than circulation has resulted in restrictions on grain movement. To address these issues,the layout of static grain reserve depots should be adjusted in a timely manner in accordance with dynamic changes in grain demand. Policy recommendations include balancing the distribution of reserve depots between major and non-major grain-producing regions,optimizing the structure of reserve grain varieties in line with market demand,and enhancing investments in grain storage and transportation infrastructure to improve transfer efficiency.

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周琳,普蓂喆,钟钰.基于供应链风险管理分析框架的中央储备粮布局优化研究[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2026(1):49-58

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  • 收稿日期:2024-08-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-01-12
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