Abstract:Based on quantitative analysis of fruit price volatility in China,this paper uses X11 seasonal adjust model to empirically analyze the influence of seasonal factor on the price volatility of fruits in China.Then,HP filter model is used to filter the trend component and the cycle component from the fruits price index from 2001-01 to 2011-01,on which the long-term trend and the short-term cycle of the fruits price are studied.The result shows that the fruit price tends to rise steadily,meanwhile,some seasonal,invisible or international economic factors make fruits price sharply volatile in short term.Besides,fruit price volatility can be divided into 7 cycles in the study period,each cycle differs from the other because of their volatile ranges and frequencies.What’s more,the volatile ranges and frequencies are amplifying recently.Therefore,this paper points out that some effective measures should be taken to control the fruit price from the aspects of production,consumption and import in order to stablize fruit price in China.