产业结构调整对城乡收入差距的影响机理——基于省际面板数据模型的分析
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国家社会科学基金重点项目“战略性新兴产业理论与政策研究”(11AZD081)。


Influence Mechanism of Industrial Structure Adjustment on Income Gap of Urban and Rural Areas——Based on Provincial Panel Data Model
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    摘要:

    产业结构调整作为政府实现宏观发展战略目标的重要调控手段,具有显著的收入分配效应。本文利用中国30个省份1998-2012年的面板数据,运用联立方程模型和内生分布滞后模型,研究了产业结构调整对城乡收入差距的影响机理。结果发现:产业结构调整在即期与城乡收入差距负相关;在长期,城乡居民根据产业结构调整重塑就业预期,通过调整人力资本投资结构、提升人力资本水平实现职业转换,届时将出现农村居民收入增幅将高于城镇居民的格局,形成乡城收入赶超效应,产生缩小城乡收入差距的正面效应。

    Abstract:

    Industrial structure adjustment is the important regulating method for goverments to reach the macroscopic development strategy,which has the obvious effects of income distribution.Based on panel dataset from 30 provinces inChina between 1998 and 2012,this paper uses simultaneous equation model and distribution-lag model to study the influencing mechanism of of industrial structure adjustment on income gap of urban and rural areas.The result shows that industrial structure adjustment is negatively related to income gap in the short run.And in the long run,according to the industrial structure adjustment,the urban and rural residents will reshape the employment expectations by adjusting the human capital investment structure and enhancing the level of human capital to achieve professional conversion.Then rural residents income growth will be higher than that of urban residents,which will form rural-urban income surpassing effect so as to produce positive effect of narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas.

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杨晓锋,赵芳.产业结构调整对城乡收入差距的影响机理——基于省际面板数据模型的分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2014(06):39-44

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