我国人口老龄化地区差异及影响因素分析
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国家社会科学基金项目“银色经济视角下的养老服务”(16FGL004)。


Regional Difference and Influencing Factors of Population Aging in China
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    摘要:

    采用2003-2014年的中国人口老龄化数据,运用泰尔指数分析法,选取老龄化系数、老少比两个指标,对东部、西部和中部三区域进行了差异分解;然后结合省级面板数据设定模型,使用FGLS估计法实证检验了全国、东部、西部和中部的人口老龄化的影响因素。实证结果表明:我国人口老龄化具有严重的地区差异的特点,东部、西部和中部的老龄化发展具有非均衡的特点,地区差异变化反复波动,并不稳定。随着经济的发展,人均GDP的增长,城市化水平的提高,出生率和死亡率的下降,人口老龄化的地区差异会越来越严重。出生率和人均GDP对人口老龄化影响最大,城市化率对中部地区和西部地区的人口老龄化影响较大,而死亡率对人口老龄化的影响存在多种可能性,但是对于全国来讲影响较大,文盲率对于西部地区的人口老龄化影响较大。

    Abstract:

    Based on the population ageing data from 2003 to 2014,this paper first uses theilindex analysis method and selects coefficient of population aging,old and young rate indicators to decompose the differences in the eastern,western and central areas,then combines provincial panel data model and FGLS estimation method to empirically test the influencing factors of population ageing in the eastern,western and central areas. The result shows that population aging in China is seriously different in different regions. Population ageing in the eastern,western and central areas shows the characteristics of uneven development,regional differences change repeatedly and are not stable. With the development of economy,increase of per capita GDP and urbanization rate,decline of birth rate and death rate,the regional differences of population ageing will become more and more serious. Birth rate and per capita GDP have the greatest impact on aging of population,urbanization rate has a greater impact on aging of population in central and western areas,while the impact of death rate on aging of population has many possibilities,which has a greater impact for the whole country. Illiteracy rate has a greater impact on aging of population in the western area.

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李乐乐.我国人口老龄化地区差异及影响因素分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017(6):94-102

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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-10-24
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