于海龙,吴静,张瑞娟.生鲜乳价格波动、倒奶杀牛与奶业调控政策研究[J].华中农业大学学报(社科),2018,(1):65-72
生鲜乳价格波动、倒奶杀牛与奶业调控政策研究
Study on Raw Milk Price Fluctuation,Dumping Milk and Regulatory Policies
  
DOI:
中文关键词:生鲜乳  价格波动  倒奶杀牛  调控政策  Census X12季节调整法
英文关键词:raw milk  fluctuation of price  dumping milk  regulatory policy  Census X12 seasonally adjustment
基金项目:国家社会科学基金青年项目 “农业支持政策对新型农业经营主体种粮行为的影响研究”(16CJY049)。
作者单位
于海龙 清华大学 中国农村研究院北京 100083 
吴静 清华大学 中国农村研究院北京 100083 
张瑞娟 中国社会科学院 农村发展研究所北京 100732 
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中文摘要:
      生鲜乳价格剧烈波动是我国乳业发展面临的一大难题。采用Census X12季节调整法和H-P滤波法对我国生鲜乳价格波动特征及其成因进行分析。研究发现,我国生鲜乳价格波动主要受长期趋势和循环波动因素的影响,季节性波动和不规则波动的影响极其微弱。生鲜乳价格的长期趋势是不断上涨的,但2014年后出现了下行势头,生鲜乳价格的循环波动可划分为3个周期,呈现“大幅波动-相对平缓-更大幅度波动”的变化趋势。消费需求变化、生产成本变动、进口乳品冲击、产业政策调整和突发质量安全事件等是影响我国生鲜乳价格波动的最主要因素,而开放经济条件下的生产效率差异、产业链视角下扭曲的利益分配机制以及当前我国乳业快速转型调整的阶段特征则是我国生鲜乳价格剧烈波动和奶农“倒奶杀牛”的根源。因此,我国奶业调控政策应聚焦市场需求变化、奶业生产效率的提升、合理利益分配机制和价格预警机制的构建。
英文摘要:
      Fluctuation of raw milk price is the major problem in the development of Chinese dairy industry.This paper uses Census X12 seasonally adjustment and H-P filter to analyze the characteristics of fluctuation of raw milk price and its causes.The result shows that the fluctuation of raw milk price is manly affected by long term trend and cyclical factors,and the influence of seasonal and irregular fluctuationis extremely weak.The long term trend of fresh milk price is rising,but it has showed downward trend since 2014.The cyclical trend can be divided into three cycles as “large fluctuation-relatively gentle-much larger fluctuation”.Changes of demand and production costs,shocks of importing dairy products,policy adjustments and safety incidents are the most important factors affecting the fluctuation of fresh milk price,while the difference of productive efficiency in open market,distorted profit distribution mechanism and rapid adjustments of dairy industry are the roots of price fluctuation and dumping milk.Therefore,China’s regulatory policies should focus on adapting to market demand,improving the productive efficiency and building a reasonable profit distribution mechanismand price warning mechanism.
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