孙致陆,贾小玲,李先德.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家粮食贸易演变趋势及其虚拟耕地资源流量估算[J].华中农业大学学报(社科),2019,(1):24-32
中国与“一带一路”沿线国家粮食贸易演变趋势及其虚拟耕地资源流量估算
The Variation Trend of Grain Trade and Estimation on the Virtual Arable Land Resource Flows between China and the Countries along the Belt and Road
  
DOI:
中文关键词:“一带一路”沿线国家  粮食贸易  虚拟耕地  资源流量
英文关键词:countries along the “One Belt and One Road”  grain trade  virtual arable land  resource flows
基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年项目“贸易开放背景下世界主粮贸易演进机理及中国对策:基于社会网络的视角”(71703157);国家统计局全国统计科学项目“‘一带一路’沿线国家贸易便利化水平及其对中国农产品出口影响研究”(2016LY29);中国农业科学院科技创新工程“国外农业经济与政策”(ASTIP-IAED-2018-06)。
作者单位
孙致陆 中国农业科学院 农业经济与发展研究所北京 100081 
贾小玲 中国农业科学院 农业经济与发展研究所北京 100081 
李先德 中国农业科学院 农业经济与发展研究所北京 100081 
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中文摘要:
      中国与“一带一路”沿线国家共同开展互利共赢的更大范围、更高水平、更深层次农业合作,特别是加强与“一带一路”沿线主要粮食出口国经贸关系,对中国更好地充实耕地资源占有量和保障国家粮食安全战略实施有重要现实意义。以稻米、小麦、玉米和大豆为例,分析了1995—2016年中国与“一带一路”沿线国家粮食贸易演变趋势,并估算了双方粮食贸易的虚拟耕地资源流量。结果表明:中国与“一带一路”沿线国家粮食贸易量持续波动变化,2008年以来中国一直处于净进口地位且净进口量不断增长,2013年“一带一路”倡议提出以来增速更快且中国主要出口稻米、主要进口稻米和玉米;“一带一路”倡议提出前后的2008—2012年和2013—2016年,中国通过粮食贸易从“一带一路”沿线国家分别累计净进口虚拟耕地83.60万公顷和403.53万公顷,其中通过稻米贸易分别累计净进口虚拟耕地73.84万公顷和239.74万公顷。
英文摘要:
      China should carry out a broader,higher-standard and deeper agricultural cooperation with countries along the “One Belt and One Road” (OBOR) in a mutual-beneficial way.To reinforce the economic and trade relationship with the main grain exporting countries along the OBOR is of great importance for China to better enrich the amount of arable land resource and safeguard the implementation of national food security strategy.Taking rice,wheat,maize and soybean as example,this paper analyzes the variation trend of grain trade between China and countries along the OBOR (1995-2016),and estimates the virtual arable land resource flows.The results indicate that:(1) The amount of grain trade between China and countries along the OBOR fluctuates continuously,and China has always been a net-importer,and the net-imports have kept growing since 2008 and even quicker since 2013 when the OBOR Initiative was put forward; (2)Since the OBOR Initiative was put forward,China mainly exports rice to countries along the OBOR,and from which mainly imports rice and maize; (3) China’s accumulated net-imports of virtual arable land resource by grain trade with countries along the OBOR is 0.836 0 million hm2 (2008-2012) and 4.035 3 million hm2 (2013-2016),and the accumulated net-imports of virtual arable land resource by rice trade is 0.738 4 million hm2 and 2.397 4 million hm2 respectively.
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