1978—2015年中国农业经济重心和禀赋结构重心时空轨迹及其耦合趋势研究
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中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费“国内外农产品价格双向传导机制研究”(JBYW-AII-2017-12);浙江工商大学研究生科研创新基金重点项目“时空异质弹性生产函数估计及全要素生产率测度——基于空间计量经济模型在变弹性生产函数中的运用”(16020000108)。


Research on the Space-time Trajectory and Its Coupling Trend of the Gravity Center of China’s Agricultural Economy and Its Endowment Structure in 1978-2015
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    摘要:

    本文利用重心模型刻画了1978—2015年中国农业经济和农业要素禀赋结构重心的时空演变轨迹,同时通过耦合“经济禀赋”重心的空间变动过程测度农业经济与禀赋结构的协同程度。结果表明:(1)我国农业经济重心总体上表现出较为稳定的宏观态势,近四十年呈现出先向东后向西北的小幅度移动。(2)在农业要素禀赋结构重心方面,农业劳动力重心呈现出向西北方向移动的特点;农业资本重心在东西方向上表现为先西后东的移动特点,在南北方向上则有较为明显的北移趋势;农业劳均资本重心总体上呈现出向东北方向的“逆S”型移动。(3)我国农业经济重心在东西方向上的移动更多是由劳动力重心移动所引起,农业资本重心的移动带动了农业经济重心在南北方向上的移动。

    Abstract:

    Based on the application of gravity center model,this paper described the space-time evolution path of the gravity center of agricultural economic and agricultural factor endowment structure in China from 1978 to 2015.Meanwhile,it measured the agricultural economy by coupling the process of spatial changes of the gravity center of endowment structure.The research results showed that:(1) The gravity center of agricultural economy in China exhibited a relatively stable macroeconomic trend,shifting from east to northwest on a small scale in the recent forty years.(2) The gravity center of the labor in agriculture moved northwest; the gravity center of agricultural capital,besides moving to the west firstly and then to the east,showed the trend of moving to the north; the gravity center of per capital generally showed an inversed S pattern to the northeast.(3) The shift of gravity center of China’s agricultural economy in the eastwest direction was mainly caused by the shift in the gravity center of the labor.The shift in the gravity center of agricultural capital has led to the shift of gravity center of the agricultural economy in the north-south direction.

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胡晨沛,李辉尚.1978—2015年中国农业经济重心和禀赋结构重心时空轨迹及其耦合趋势研究[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2019(2):91-99

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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-02-22
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