张雪,周密.农户种植结构调整中的羊群效应——以辽宁省玉米种植户为例[J].华中农业大学学报(社科),2019,(4):54-62
农户种植结构调整中的羊群效应——以辽宁省玉米种植户为例
Herding Effect in Adjustment of Farmers’ Planting Structure——A Case Study of Maize Farmers in Liaoning Provinces
  
DOI:
中文关键词:种植结构调整  影响机理  工具变量  多重中介效应
英文关键词:planting structure adjustment  influence mechanism  instrumental variable  multiple mediating effect
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“农民工非技能型人力资本的测度及其对城市融合的影响机制与实证”(71573197);辽宁省社科规划基金重点项目“城镇化背景下辽宁省村级公共产品供给机制创新:一事一议财政奖补制度的运行机制及其适用性”(L17AGL009)。
作者单位
张雪 沈阳农业大学 经济管理学院辽宁 沈阳 110866 
周密 沈阳农业大学 经济管理学院辽宁 沈阳 110866 
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中文摘要:
      种植结构调整是深化农业供给侧结构性改革的必由之路,但是“跟风”调整带来的过度调整将对我国粮食安全和食物安全带来巨大挑战。本文采用Bootstrap中介检验和工具变量法,以辽宁省467户玉米种植户为例,验证了种植结构调整中的羊群效应及其形成机制。研究发现:农户的种植结构调整意愿倾向于模仿群体内他人的意愿,且亲缘网络中其他农户意愿带来的影响强于地缘网络中其他农户意愿带来的影响,即农户的种植结构调整中存在羊群效应。农户种植结构调整中羊群效应的形成机制主要在于农户之间的学习型模仿和风险分担,且相对于大规模农户而言小规模农户更易表现出羊群效应。因此,可以将羊群效应与正规制度互为补充,共同推进种植结构优化,重视新型经营主体对小农户的引领作用,同时,要避免“跟风”行为造成的过度调整。
英文摘要:
      The adjustment of planting structure is an indispensable way to deepen the structural reform of agricultural supply side,but the excessive adjustment to follow the trend will bring great challenges to China’s foodstuff security and food security.In this paper,Bootstrap intermediary test and instrumental variable method were used to verify the herding effect and its formation mechanism in 467 maize farmers in Liaoning Province.The results show that the herding effect exists in the adjustment of farmers’ planting structure,which is further expounded by the facts that farmers tend to imitate others’ decision-making in the group,and kinship proves to be more influential than geo-relationship in decision-making.The formation mechanism of herding effect in the adjustment mainly lies in the learning imitation and risk sharing among farmers,which is more manifest among small-scale farmers than large-scale farmers.Therefore,it is proposed to complement the formal system with the herding effect,to promote the optimization of planting structure,to emphasize the leading role of new business entities to small farmers,and to avoid excessive adjustment.
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