李星晨,刘宏曼.FTA对农产品出口持续时间的影响:来自中国的证据[J].华中农业大学学报(社科),2019,(6):30-41
FTA对农产品出口持续时间的影响:来自中国的证据
Impact of FTA on the Duration of Agricultural Exports:Evidence from China
  
DOI:
中文关键词:FTA  出口持续时间  生存分析  离散时间模型  农产品
英文关键词:FTA  export duration  survival analysis  discret time model  agricultural products
基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目“垂直专业化视角下中国农业参与全球价值链的影响机制研究”(17BJY225)。
作者单位
李星晨 中国农业大学 经济管理学院北京 100083 
刘宏曼 中国农业大学 经济管理学院北京 100083 
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中文摘要:
      利用1996-2016年间CEPII-BACI数据库的HS6分位数据,采用基于离散时间的生存分析法研究FTA对中国农产品出口持续时间的影响。结果表明:中国向FTA成员国农产品出口的风险率更低;在FTA成立的作用下,开始于FTA成立之前的贸易关系持续时间延长,开始于FTA成立之后的贸易关系持续时间则因不确定性因素而缩短;中国农产品出口关系生存概率随FTA成立时间和条款深度增加而提高;由于对贸易成本的降低幅度不同,FTA对加工农产品出口持续时间的影响大于初级农产品。基于此,提出坚持和完善自由贸易区战略、合理引导企业的政策建议。
英文摘要:
      Using the HS 6-digit data of CEPII-BACI database (1996-2016),this paper adopts the survival analysis method based on discrete time to study the impact of FTA on the duration of China’s agricultural exports.The results show that:(1)The hazard rate of China’s agricultural exports to FTA members is lower; (2) Under the influence of the FTA,the duration of trade relationships that has started before the establishment of the FTA is prolonged yet that starts after the establishment of the FTA is shortened due to uncertainty; (3) The survivor rate of China’s agricultural exports relationships has increased with time and depth of FTA; (4) Due to different reduction ranges of trade costs,FTA has a greater impact on the export duration of processed agricultural products than primary agricultural products.Finally,it puts forward the policy suggestions of adhering to and perfecting the FTA strategy and guiding enterprises reasonably.
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