保障性住房与新生代农民工城市居留意愿——来自2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查的证据
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国家自然科学基金“数字鸿沟对农户福利不平等的影响机理与效应研究——基于Sen的可行能力理论”(71903062);全国统计科学研究重点项目“农村数字鸿沟的统计测度及对农民福利的影响效应研究”(2019LZ31)。


Public Housing and the New Generation Migrant Workers’ Willingness to Stay in Cities——Evidence from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey
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    摘要:

    住房是农民工进入城市、融入城市的安身立命之所,而建设保障性住房(简称“保障房”)是改善农民工居住条件,推进农民工市民化进程的关键举措之一。在此背景下,结合最新的2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,系统考察了保障房对新生代农民工城市居留意愿的影响。研究表明:第一,居住在保障房的新生代农民工比例仍然偏低,意味着针对农民工的保障房建设依然任重道远。第二,相比于租房,保障房对新生代农民工城市居留意愿具有显著正向影响,在加入其他解释变量后,结论保持一致。考虑到模型中潜在的选择性偏误,运用倾向得分匹配法构建反事实框架加以纠正,并通过逆向概率加权法、逆向概率加权回归调整法、调整变量衡量方式等进行稳健性检验,结论依然成立。第三,保障房对新生代农民工城市居留意愿的影响存在代际差异,相比于90后农民工,保障房对80后农民工的影响更明显。由此,提出要发挥保障房在农民工市民化进程中的作用,应当突出保障房建设的多样性与差异化、优先考虑就业居住超五年和80后农民工等方面实施更有利于新生代农民工的住房制度改革举措。

    Abstract:

    Housing is the important place for migrant workers to enter and integrate into the city and public housing is one of the essential measures to improve migrant workers’ living condition. We systematically investigate the impact of public housing on the new generation of migrant workers’ willingness to stay in cities using the China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2012. The results show that:(1)The proportion of the new generation of migrant workers living in public housing is less than 2%,indicating that the construction of the public housing for migrant workers still has a long way to go. (2)Compared with renting,public housing has a significant positive impact on the new generation’s willingness to stay in the city,and the conclusion remains consistent after adding other explanatory variables. Besides,we employ the propensity score matching to construct a counter-factual framework to correct the potential selective bias in the model that might confound our causal estimates. (3)There are differences in the impact of public housing on the willingness of new generation migrant workers to stay in cities. Compared with post-90s,the impact of public housing on post-80s is more obvious. Therefore,in order to give full play to the role of public housing in the migrant workers’ citizenization,we propose to highlight the diversity and differentiation in the construction of public housing,give priority to migrant workers working or living over five years in cities and post-80s migrant workers,and reform the housing system for the advantage of the new generation of migrant workers.

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祝仲坤.保障性住房与新生代农民工城市居留意愿——来自2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查的证据[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2020(2):98-108

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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-03-19
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