农地撂荒与粮食生产一个非线性关系的考察
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作者单位:

1.华南农业大学 经济管理学院,广东 广州 510642;2.华南农业大学 国家农业制度与发展研究院,广东 广州 510642

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中图分类号:

F301.2

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金青年项目“非农转移、代际转换与农地撂荒发生机理研究”(72203064);清华大学中国农村研究博士论 文奖学金项目“劳动力非农转移对农地撂荒的影响机理与应对策略研究”(202309)。*为通讯作者。


Farmland Abandonment and Food ProductionAn Investigation of a Nonlinear Relationship
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    摘要:

    农地撂荒现象已经受到学界广泛关注,但关于农地撂荒对粮食生产的影响还缺乏有效的定量评估。通过将农地撂荒与粮食生产纳入统一分析框架,并使用2017年中国农村家庭追踪调查数据(CRHPS)进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)农地撂荒对粮食产出的影响存在门槛效应,即农地撂荒需要达到一定规模才会影响粮食产出。(2)机制分析表明,农地撂荒与粮食产出之间的非线性关系是由于撂荒地块的质量差异与剩余地块要素配置水平变化共同引起的。小规模的撂荒主要涉及劣等地块,造成的粮食损失相对较小;同时,撂荒劣等地块还会提升剩余地块上的要素配置水平,带来粮食增产的效果,从而部分抵消了粮食损失。然而,这种增产效果会随着非农就业规模的增加而逐渐减弱。(3)进一步分析表明,引进农业技术和提高人力资本水平可以有效削弱农地撂荒对粮食产量的不利影响。文章强调,当前阶段的农地撂荒主要以产粮率较低的劣等地为主,并未对粮食安全构成明显威胁。此外,是否有必要采用行政手段促使劣等地块复耕种粮,应予以审慎考虑。相比之下,退耕还林(草)或改种其他经济作物等措施可能更具可行性和潜在优势。

    Abstract:

    The phenomenon of farmland abandonment has received widespread attention in the academic community,but there is still a lack of effective quantitative assessment of the impact of farmland abandonment on food production.This paper integrates farmland abandonment and food production into a unified analytical framework and uses the data of China Rural Household Tracking Survey (CRHPS) in 2017 to conduct an empirical test. It is found that there is a threshold effect of farmland abandonment on grain output,that is,farmland abandonment needs to reach a certain scale to affect grain output. The mechanism analysis indicates that the nonlinear relationship between farmland abandonment and grain output is caused by the quality difference of abandoned plots and the change in factor allocation level of remaining plots.Small-scale farmland abandonment mainly involves low-quality plots,resulting in relatively small food loss.At the same time, abandoning low-quality plots will also improve the factor allocation level on the remaining plots,leading to increased grain output,thereby partially offsetting the grain loss.However,this increase in production will gradually diminish as the size of off-farm employment increases. Further analysis shows that introducing agricultural technology and enhancing human capital level can effectively mitigate the adverse impact of agricultural land abandonment on grain output.The paper emphasizes that current farmland abandonment primarily targets inferior land with low yield and does not pose a significant threat to food security.In addition,the necessity for using administrative measures to promote the re-cultivation of low-quality land for grain cultivation should be carefully considered. In contrast,measures such as converting abandoned land to forests (or grasslands) or planting other economic crops may be more feasible and potentially advantageous.

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庄健,罗必良.农地撂荒与粮食生产一个非线性关系的考察[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2024(2):58-68

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  • 收稿日期:2023-12-01
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-03-19
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