Page 121 - 《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第1期

第 １ 期 李红莉 等: 增产是否增收? ———基于粮食主产区设立的准自然实验研究 １ １ ５

MoreGrainProduction MoreIncome ?
,

——— Em p iricalEvidenceFromthePolic yofMa j orGrainProducin gAreas

LIHon g li , ZHANGJunbiao , TONG Qin g men g

Abstract Increasin gg rainp roductionandincreasin gincomearetwoim p ortantg oalsofthe
p olic yofma j or g rainp roducin gareas．Previousstudiesfocusedonthecontributionofthep olic yof
ma j or g rainp roducin g areastoincreasin gg rainp roduction．However , whethertoachieveanincrease
inincomewhileachievin ganincreaseing rainp roductionhasnotbeeng ivensufficientattention．
Therefore , thearticlere g ardstheestablishmentof１３ma j or g rainp roducin g areasin２００４asa q uasiＧ
naturalex p eriment．Basedonthep aneldataof３１China ’ sp rovincesobtainedfrom１９９７to２０１８ ,
thisp a p ers y stematicall y investi g atestheeffectsofthe p oliciesa pp liedinma j or g rainp roducin g areＧ
asonfarmers ’ incomeb ydifferenceＧinＧdifferencemethod．Theconclusionsareasfollows．The p oliＧ
c yofthema j or g rainp roducin g areashasasi g nificant p ositiveeffectonfarmers ’ householdincome ,
,
buthasasi g nificantne g ativeeffectontheirwa g eincome．S p ecificall y com p aredwithnonＧma j or
g rainp roducin g areas , the p olic yofthemaing rainp roductionareasresultedinarelativeincreaseof
４５５．８５２y uaninfarmers ’ householdincomeandarelativedecreaseof５３２．５６７y uaninwa g eincome
inthe１３ ma j org rainＧ p roducin gp rovinces．Theincreasin geffectoffarmers ’ householdincomeis
mainl yduetotheex p ansionofthe g rainp lantin g scaletoachievethe p olic yg oals．Onthewhole , the
p olic yofma j or g rainp roducin g areaschan g etheallocationofresourcesbetweenfarmin g andworkＧ
in g toachievead y namicbalanceoffarmers ’ dis p osableincome．Therefore , thisarticlebelievesthat
whilecontinuin g to p romote p oliciestounder p ina g ricultural p roductioninthemaing rainＧ p roducin g
re g ions , oliciestosu pp ortdiversifiedem p lo y mentofrurallabourersshouldbefurtherstren g thened
p
tobroadenthechannelsforfarmerstoincreasetheirincomes , andacombinationof p oliciestoconＧ
solidate “ increasedp roductionandincome ” shouldbe p utinp lacetoachieveastead y increaseinthe
dis p osableincomeoffarmers．
Ke ywords ma j org rainp roducin gareas ; increasin gg rainp roductionandincome ; farmers ’

householdincome ; theg rainp lantin gscale ; differenceＧinＧdifferencemethod

( 责任编辑: 金会平)