Page 44 - 《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第1期

38 华中农业大学学报（社会科学版） （总169 期）

[43] 赵健宇，陆正飞.养老保险缴费比例会影响企业生产效率吗？［J］.经济研究，2018，53（10）：97-112.
[44] 杨宇，李容.劳动力转移、要素替代及其约束条件［J］.南京农业大学学报（社会科学版），2015，15（2）：44-50，125.
[45] 朱喜，史清华，盖庆恩.要素配置扭曲与农业全要素生产率［J］.经济研究，2011，46（5）：86-98.
[46] HICKS J.The theory of wages［M］.London：Macmillan，1932.
[47] HAYAMI Y，RUTTAN V W.Agricultural development：an international perspective［M］.Baltimore：The Johns Hopkins Press，
1971.
[48] HAYAMI Y，RUTTAN V W.Agricultural productivity differences among countries［J］.American economics review，1970，60（5）：
895-911.
[49] GONG B L.New growth accounting［J］.American journal of agricultural economics，2020，102（2）：641-661.
[50] 郑志浩，程申.中国粮食种植业TFP增长率及其演进趋势：1980−2018［J］.中国农村经济，2021（7）：100-120.
[51] BATTESE G E，COELLI T J.Frontier production functions，technical efficiency and panel data：with application to paddy farmers
in India［J］.Journal of productivity analysis，1992，3（1）：153-169.
[52] 龚斌磊.中国农业技术扩散与生产率区域差距［J］.经济研究，2022，57（11）：102-120.
[53] GONG B L.Agricultural reforms and production in China：changes in provincial production function and productivity in 1978−2015
［J］.Journal of development economics，2018，132：18-31.
[54] 闫周府，吴方卫，袁凯彬.劳动禀赋变化、技术选择与粮食种植结构调整［J］.财经研究，2021，47（4）：79-93.
[55] RIVERA-PADILLA A.Crop choice，trade costs，and agricultural productivity［J］.Journal of development economics，2020，146：
102517.
[56] 杨进，刘新宇 . 中国农业种植结构变化对生产效率的影响——基于专业化分工的视角［J］. 华中科技大学学报（社会科学版），
2021，35（4）：64-73.
[57] SUN S K，WU P T，WANG Y B，et al.Impact of changing cropping pattern on the regional agricultural water productivity［J］.The
journal of agricultural science，2015，153（5）：767-778.

Rising Labor Costs， Factor Substitution and
Agricultural Total Factor Productivity

GONG Binlei， XIAO Yayun， XU Jun， YUAN Lingran

Abstract With the advancement of urbanization and industrialization in China， a large number of
agricultural labor forces have transferred， providing an important driving force for the continued eco⁃
nomic growth.However， rising labor costs may have a negative impact on agricultural total factor produc⁃
tivity.From the perspective of factor substitution， areas and crops where machinery is difficult to replace
labor should be more affected by the increase in labor prices.This article studies the above issues based
on unbalanced panel data of 2463 counties in China from 1993 to 2015.The empirical results indicate that
rising labor costs do have a significant negative impact on China′s agricultural total factor productivity.In
order to characterize factor substitution， especially the role of machinery substituting for labor， this ar⁃
ticle explores the effects of different slopes and different crops.The empirical results show that， on the
one hand， in areas with a high proportion of sloping farmland， it is more difficult for machinery to replace
labor， resulting in a greater negative impact on agricultural total factor productivity.On the other hand，
compared with food crops， it is more difficult for machinery to replace labor in the production of cash
crops.Therefore， rising labor costs will lead to a grain-oriented planting structure.Considering that cash
crops are relatively efficient， this will lead to the overall decline in agricultural total factor productivity.
Key words labor cost； agricultural total factor productivity； factor substitution

（责任编辑：王 薇）